From my understanding and experience, there are multiple reasons why we are seeing fewer software engineering jobs. But I think one of the biggest reasons is the global economic situation, including ongoing wars and conflicts worldwide.
Many people are blaming AI for the situation. But I don't fully agree.
How the Job Market Has Changed Since 2022
When I joined Toptal in February 2022, it was a golden time for software engineers. Tech companies were hiring engineers at scale. I saw a lot of jobs at Toptal, and the hourly rates for many of them were very high.
But things started changing in 2022. After the Russia-Ukraine war started, the global economic situation became more uncertain. At the same time, inflation rose, interest rates increased, and companies became more careful with spending.
Tech companies started laying off employees, and the number of available jobs began to decrease.
However, I don't think the war was the only reason. During the pandemic, many tech companies had hired engineers very aggressively. That level of hiring was probably not sustainable in the long run.
And even after several years, the software engineering job market hasn't fully returned to what we saw in early 2022.
Is AI Really Replacing Software Engineers?
Nowadays, whenever someone talks about the tech job shortage, I hear almost the same thing. AI is replacing software engineers. And that's why people are not getting the jobs they expect. I don't fully agree. I think the situation is much more complicated than that.
When the job market started slowing down in 2022, AI coding tools were not nearly as advanced or widely used as they are today. So we cannot blame AI for everything that happened.
Of course, I am not saying AI has no impact on software engineering jobs. It definitely does, and I think it is already changing the way companies hire engineers, especially for some junior positions. But I don't think AI is the main reason behind the entire slowdown.
AI Makes Coding Faster, But That's Not Everything
With the help of AI, software development has become much easier in many ways. Today, we can write code much faster than before. AI can generate functions, explain unfamiliar code, help debug problems, and even build features.
But I strongly believe one thing. Writing code quickly and building good software are not the same thing.
In my experience, AI-generated code isn't always as clean, secure, or maintainable as it needs to be. Sometimes it looks perfectly fine at first, but creates problems when we try to extend or maintain the application. Though human engineers can write bad code too.
But to build reliable, secure, and maintainable software, we still need engineers who understand architecture, security, business requirements, performance, and how the entire system works.
So I think AI is helping software engineers write code faster. But that doesn't mean software engineers are no longer needed.
What About Global Conflicts and AI Hype?
Another important reason, in my opinion, is where companies are choosing to invest their money.
Wars and conflicts continue around the world. These create uncertainty, affect business costs, and can make companies more cautious about investing in new projects. When companies are uncertain about the future, they may delay projects, reduce budgets, or avoid hiring additional engineers.
At the same time, we are seeing massive investment in AI. Almost every major tech company is focusing heavily on AI. And I think some businesses are prioritizing AI-related investments over other software projects.
This doesn't mean they have completely stopped investing in traditional software development. But it may be changing their priorities.
In my opinion, both economic uncertainty and the current AI hype are contributing to the situation.
Final Thoughts
I think several factors are behind the reduced number of software engineering jobs.
The hiring boom during the pandemic, the global economic situation, wars and conflicts, higher interest rates, and changing investment priorities have all played a role.
AI is also having an impact. I don't want to ignore that. But I don't think blaming AI for everything is the right way to understand the situation. AI is helping people write code faster. But building good software is much more than writing code. We still need software engineers who can build secure, scalable, and maintainable applications. And I believe we will continue to need them, even as AI becomes more capable.
That's how I see the current software engineering job market, based on my experience and understanding.